Marc's Blog

My thoughts on the concept and practice of blogging

2004-11-28T19:04:00.000-08:00

This was from another thread where Tania asked me why I stopped posting entries to the Blog. I think it deserves its own posting:

No, actually I just haven't had that desire to write stuff on the blog recently for two reasons:

1) Blogs are really a passive method of communication. E-mails are much more effective to ensure a person or group of people get a message in a reasonable amount of time. E-mails are also somewhat passive, in that somebody needs to read their e-mail in order to get your message, but then again, not checking your email is nearly tantamount to not answering the phone or plugging your ears when somebody is talking to you (though I've tried that, and for some reason most people find it rude). However, in order to have an effective blog, you really need to have an interesting blog that people are willing to check. Currently, I don't really have that much that's interesting to say IMHO :).

2) It seems that when people do read the blog, many of them don't comment, so I have no idea whether they read it or not. I suppose this is related to the first point, which is really that when I send an e-mail I have a higher degree of confidence that the person I send it to will at least read it (intended objective), and possibly actually respond to it (bonus).

I really do like the concept of the Blog for many reasons (good for the sake of posterity, nicer display elements than possible with lowest-common-denominator that you have to deal with for e-mail clients, gives a better feel of community than e-mail), but I think that it can only be effective when you have a large or dedicated community. What makes a great blog is when you have both a large and dedicated community.

-Marc

New Zogby state poll out

2004-10-07T21:43:00.000-07:00

Thanks Steva for pointing out that it was updated. I was checking it daily, and you beat me to it. Here is the link:

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/
info-battleground04-frameset.html

-Marc

Democracy Corps great poll

2004-10-06T18:14:00.000-07:00

This is an awesome poll with tons of information on who won the debates, and various other issues. I wish all polls were this detailed:

http://www.democracycorps.com/reports/
surveys/Democracy_Corps_October_3-5_2004_Graphs.pdf

-Marc

Colorado maybe changing their electoral policy; Polling roundup

2004-10-06T17:30:00.000-07:00

Did you guys know that Colorado is voting on whether to change how they allocate electoral college votes? They are thinking of dividing them based on the popular vote in the state. They are voting on it Nov 2nd, and it goes into effect for the 2004 election! This could make or break the election for somebody, as Colorado has 9 electoral votes. There is an interesting article on this here

I'll post the results of some new post Presidential Debate #1 polls here:

National:
ABC B:49% K:47%
CBS B:47% K:47%
ARG B:46% K:46%
Gallup: B: 49% K:49%
FOX: B:47% K45%

States:
FL: Kerry +2
PA: Kerry +7
NJ: Kerry +3; Kerry +5
NM: Kerry +3
IA: Bush +3; IA: Kerry +1
OH: Kerry +1 (first lead in Ohio in a long time!)
MO: Bush +2
WA: Kerry +11
NC: Bush +7

Enjoy!
-Marc

Soros capatalizes on slip up by Cheney

2004-10-06T17:29:00.000-07:00

I find this very funny:

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/06/debate.website.ap/index.html

-Marc

Kerry Gains in Gallup Poll

2004-10-03T23:05:00.001-07:00

This is good news, and confirms the Newsweek poll:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/
nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm

Here is a snippet:

2. Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo as independent candidates. Would you vote for:

	Kerry/ Edwards	Bush/ Cheney	Nader/ Camejo	Other (vol.)	None (vol.)	No opinion
Likely Voters
2004 Oct 1-3 ^	49	49	1	1	*	*
2004 Sep 24-26	44	52	3	--	*	1
2004 Sep 13-15 †	40	54	3	2	*	1
2004 Sep 3-5	45	52	1	--	*	2
2004 Aug 23-25	46	48	4	*	*	2
2004 Aug 9-11	46	48	3	*	1	2
2004 Jul 30-Aug 1	45	51	2	*	1	1
2004 Jul 19-21	47	46	4	*	1	2
2004 Jul 8-11 ‡	50	45	2	*	1	2
2004 Jun 21-23	47	48	3	*	*	2
2004 Jun 3-6	49	43	5	1	*	2
2004 May 21-23	47	46	4	*	1	2
2004 May 7-9	45	47	5	--	2	1
Registered Voters
2004 Oct 1-3 ^	47	49	1	1	1	1
2004 Sep 24-26	42	53	3	--	1	1
2004 Sep 13-15 †	42	50	4	2	1	1
2004 Sep 3-5	46	48	4	--	1	1
2004 Aug 23-25	46	46	4	*	1	3
2004 Aug 9-11	45	46	5	*	1	3
2004 Jul 30-Aug 1	47	48	2	*	1	2
2004 Jul 19-21	47	43	5	*	2	3
2004 Jul 8-11 ‡	50	42	4	*	1	3
2004 Jun 21-23	46	45	6	1	*	2
2004 Jun 3-6	45	42	7	1	1	4
^ Beginning with October 1-3, 2004 poll, Nader/Camejo support is based only on residents from states where Nader was on the presidential ballot at the time the poll was released. In states where Nader was not on the ballot at the time of release (see list below), Nader voters’ choice for president if Nader is not on the ballot (Q.3/3A) was substituted for their Nader vote.
† Minor party candidates Michael Badnarik (Libertarian), David Cobb (Green), and Michael Peroutka (Constitution) also included, put into “other” category for trend purposes.
‡ Vice Presidential candidates Edwards, Cheney, and Camejo added beginning with the July 8-11, 2004 survey.

Newsweek poll puts Kerry/Edwards ahead

2004-10-02T18:17:00.000-07:00

This is great news, and I know you can't see me right now, but I'm grinning from ear-to-ear :)

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6159637/site/newsweek/

Also, here is the full data for the Newsweek poll, including the trend info (The headings are a little off, it should read Bush/Cheney 45% Kerry/Edwards 47%):

Bush/ Cheney	Kerry/ Edwards	Nader/ Camejo	Other (vol.)/ Undecided
	%	%	%	%
ALL	45	47	2	6
Men	45	47	2	6
Women	44	48	1	7
Republicans	89	6	2	3
Democrats	12	86	0	2
Independents	37	42	4	17
					.
Trend:
9/9-10/04	49	43	2	6
9/2-3/04	52	41	3	4
7/29-30/04	42	49	3	6
7/8-9/04	44	47	3	6

Still, this is only one poll, and even so the only poll that counts is the one on 11/2 known as the General Election, so Kerry supporters must continue fighting!

-Marc

Kerry did very well at the debates tonight

2004-10-01T04:01:00.000-07:00

This poll is telling:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/
nation/polls/2004-09-30-debate-poll.htm

-Marc

Good sign for Democrat's in some swing states

2004-09-26T16:11:00.000-07:00

Here is an interesting article about increases in voter registration:

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20040926/ts_alt_afp/
us_vote_registration&cid=1506&ncid=1963&sid=96378801

-Marc

Wizard of Oz and the 1896 election?

2004-09-24T09:07:00.000-07:00

I found this very interesting:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Wizard%20of%20Oz.htm

-Marc

New ARG polls released (Analysis included)

2004-09-22T17:50:00.000-07:00

American Research Group released a bunch of new state polls. Find them here:
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

Marc's Analysis:
If you click on the state link, you will be taken to something that looks like this:

State:	West Virginia

Electoral votes:		5

Sample size:		600 likely voters
Sample dates:		Sep 14-16
Margin of error:		Plus or minus 4 percentage points


			Bush	Kerry	Nader	Others	Undecided
Total			46	46	2	1	6


Party:*		Contribution	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Others	Undecided
Republicans		33%	90	2	1	1	6
Democrats		58%	21	71	2	1	5
Independents/Other		9%	44	47	1	1	7

Sex:
Men		45%	52	42	1	1	4
Women		55%	41	49	2	1	7

The way to read this is that the state has 33% Republicans, 58% Democrats and 9% independents (probably based on census or other demographic information). Of the 33% of Republicans in the state, if the election were held today, 90% would vote for Bush, 2% would vote for Kerry, 1% would vote for Nader, 1% would vote for some other candidate, and 6% are undecided. Of the 58% of the Democrats in the state, 21% of the Democrats would vote for Bush, 71% would vote for Kerry 2% would vote for Nader 1% would vote for some other candidate and 5% are undecided. And lastly for the Independents, of the 9% of the states Independents 44% would vote for Bush, 47% would vote for Kerry, 1% for Nader, 1% for some other candidate, and 7% are undecided.

Using that raw data, you can work out the weighted percentages. For example, (90 * .33) + (21 *.58) + (44 * .09) would give you the total weighted percentage of people that would vote for Bush if the election were held today (45.84%). If we want Kerry's numbers we would do (46.07%). Of course, ARG already does this for us with the total % for the candidate, but you know me, I like to work the numbers out for myself.

Even though this is well within the margin of error, I decided to work out the actual number of voters this percentage difference would represent. The population of West Virginia is 1,810,354 according to the most recent census estimate (find that estimate here). Bush's percentage (45.84%) of the projected West Virginia popular vote based on this data would be 829,866 votes. Kerry's percentage (46.07%) of the projected West Virgina popular vote based on this data would give him 834,030 votes. In other words, if the election were held today, and this survey was 100% representative, Kerry would win by 4,164 votes.

That's just how close this election is!

Enjoy,
-Marc

Evil republicans, and evil laws...

2004-09-22T08:54:00.000-07:00

Man, this is evil stuff. I really can't believe this kind of thing happens in the US.

Here is the link: Millions Blocked from Voting in U.S. Election

-Marc

New Zogby poll released

2004-09-21T15:38:00.000-07:00

The new Zogby-Wall Street Journal poll was released today:

As usual the site is: http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/
info-batt leground04-frameset.html

-Marc

Open posting

2004-09-20T11:13:00.000-07:00

Please feel free to post here to say Hello if you're interested.

-Marc

Welcome to my blog

2004-09-20T10:55:00.000-07:00

This is my first entry to my blog.

It's September 20th 2004.

-Marc